By Carol Altmann

For a few weeks there, I really thought the impact of the independents might see a changing of the guard in the south-west at the state election on November 24, but, no, the Liberals are on track to win yet again.

How I would love to see our seat change hands – just this once – or at least become marginal, just so we know what that feels like.

But as former south-west candidate and self-confessed political junkie Roy Reekie sets out in detail in his blog, it all comes down to simple maths and the maths is firmly on the side of a victory for Roma Britnell and the Liberal Party.

There are two reasons for this:

1) As a safe Liberal seat, the Liberal Party already starts miles ahead of everyone else. At the 2015 by-election, with few people even knowing who Roma Britnell was, she was still the first choice of 40% of voters. Remember, she only needs 50.1% of votes to win.

2) Former Moyne Shire mayor Jim Doukas, who apparently doesn’t like independent candidate, Upper House MP and fellow former mayor James Purcell very much, is set to be the queen maker via his preferences.

Just a quick primer on preferences, for those who are not political junkies and find the whole thing totally confusing.

In a nutshell, who you vote for first is critical, but also who you put second, third, fourth, fifth etc is just as important because these votes can decide who actually wins.

How? Well, imagine the election as a foot race where each candidate starts with a sack of golden potatoes (aka first-preference votes) and the person holding the majority of potatoes at the end, wins.

The person with the least amount of golden potatoes drops out of the race first, but their potatoes don’t go to waste. No! They are instead distributed to the others who are still in the race.

This dropping out of candidates and distributing of their potatoes/preferences goes on until there is one winner with a big fat sack of spuds (aka a majority).

Using this analogy, Roma Britnell, as the sitting Liberal candidate in a safe seat, will start on November 24 with a hefty bag of potatoes – she had 15,486 of them as a newcomer in 2015 and only needed another 4000 or so to have a majority.

Country Party candidate Jim Doukas last time started with around 4000, which is substantial, so you can see why where he decides to direct his preferences really matters: everyone wants his potatoes!

Unfortunately for James Purcell and Labor’s Kylie Gaston and the Greens’ Thomas Campbell, Mr Doukas has decided to direct his spuds first to Michael Neoh and Roma Britnell, in that order. James Purcell is a lowly fifth on his preference list.

Just remember, Roma doesn’t need that many extra spuds to crack that magical 5o%-plus-one mark and Jim is now her greengrocer.

James Purcell must be spitting chips. This was not how it was supposed to play out when he decided to take the leap from the Upper House to run for the Lower House.

It was always going to be a tough haul for James to get close to beating Roma, but if all of the “others” banded together and agreed to share their votes via preference deals, then maybe he at least had a half chance as a “I’m-not-Liberal-but-I-am-conservative” candidate.

At least independent and former Warrnambool mayor Michael Neoh has done his bit to try and shake the south-west from its slumber and, in so doing, has performed a 360-degree twist in allegiances that would leave any head spinning.

In 2015, Michael ran for the National Party after failing to win preselection for the Liberals, and it was his preferences that helped get Roma Britnell safely over the line (ahead of the aforementioned Roy Reekie).

This time, however, Michael is running his own race and Roma has been dropped to 7th on his preference list behind the ALP’s Kylie Gaston – ouch! – you can see why they say there are no friends in politics!

So what does this all mean?

Well, I think the most we can hope for is that the influence of the independents sees the south-west shift from being safe to not-so-safe and maybe even a tiny bit marginal.

This would be a victory for all of us, even Liberal voters, because we all know that it is the marginal seats that have better roads than ours, better trains than ours, more funding for projects like hospitals and schools and libraries, and – above all – a genuine sense that our vote can never be taken for granted, and that, dare I say, is no small potatoes.

If you haven’t voted yet and want to help make this seat marginal, vote for one of the independents, the Greens or the ALP. For a much more detailed analysis of how things could play out, please read Roy’s blog here (written before the preference deals were announced). Roy crunches the numbers like nobody can.

“YOUTH AND BUSINESS LOSE IN BY ELECTION FIT FOR DROVER’S DOG”

PETE SMITH’S MEDIA RELEASE

[dropcap style=”font-size: 60px; color: #A02F2F;”] V[/dropcap]oters in the South West Coast have foregone an opportunity for change that will be manifested in the electorate’s youth and in business for at least a decade, according to failed Liberal Independent candidate Pete Smith.

“At a time when Portland in particular is looking for inspiration and leadership, people have voted for nothing more than an image on a poster and the Liberal Party’s logo,”  Mr Smith said.  

“With a campaign run out of Melbourne along traditional party lines and while constantly tethered to a Liberal minder, Mrs Britnell uttered not one visionary word.

“I don’t blame voters, I did exactly the same thing for over 40 years.”

[dropcap style=”font-size: 60px; color: #A02F2F;”] M[/dropcap]r Smith said that with the electorate of no interest or benefit to the current Labor government, it was doomed to a decade of drip fed maintenance for roads and services and nothing more. “

“…and when a Liberal government returns to power, other more pressing marginal electorates will receive the lion’s share of funding.

“What our young people needed was a reason to stand tall, knowing that Portland was earmarked to lead Australia – if not the world – in renewable energy research and tourism while Warrnambool would be afforded the same status in dairying promotion and excellence,” he said.

“Businesses, particularly those in the services and hospitality sector should have opened their doors today (Monday) with a sense of relief and renewal, and with a spring in their step; instead it will be yet another dog day afternoon in what will become a decade of them.”

Notwithstanding what he termed a tragic and deeply troubling setback for the electorate, Mr Smith said he felt a sense of responsibility to strive to achieve more for the electorate as a private citizen than Ms Britnell will as the local member.

“I intend to seek Roy Reekie’s help to broker a meeting with Labor Premier Daniel Andrews to outline a plan of action in which he can demonstrate his personal commitment and concern for the electorate.

“Having been gifted a seat that a famous drover’s dog could have won for the Liberals,  Roma won’t be out to make waves or put the electorate and its people before the party politics, whereas I am and I can,” Mr Smith said.

[box]After taking an initial hit, the primary Liberal vote currently sits at 40% (down 16.6%) on the back of the thousands of pre-poll votes and postal votes now being counted. Candidate Roma Britnell will rely on the preferences of National Party candidate Michael Neoh to win. Independent Roy Reekie is sitting second with almost 17% of the primary vote, followed by Michael Neoh on 14.38%. You can find counting updates here.[/box]

Comment – Carol Altmann

[dropcap style=”font-size: 60px; color: #DC943C;”] T [/dropcap]here is a great line floating around about the South West Coast by-election this Saturday (Oct 31) – don’t keep voting the same way and expect things to be different!

Yet so many south-west Victorians do just that: keep voting the same party back in year after year and then complain that things don’t change.

You only need to look around our beautiful corner of the world to see the hazards of living in a super safe seat and when it comes to the condition of our roads they are, quite literally, hazardous.

The roads are dreadful and the train service is old and inadequate.

The local job market – especially for young people – is shrinking as traditional industries close down or dry up, with few adequate replacements.

Portland should have, by now, been sitting at the forefront of the state’s renewable energy industry, but has been hamstrung by the poor policies of the conservative parties at both a state and federal level.

Our key tertiary institutions, South West TAFE and Deakin University, are struggling to either get back on their feet (as in the case of TAFE which was gutted under the Napthine Government) or to keep upright, as in the case of Deakin-Warrnambool.

Warrnambool used to be a humming university town: it is no longer, as bit by bit tertiary courses are shut down, relocated, or moved online.

Mainstreet is struggling, shops sit empty and fibs are told – such as the fib about the number of jobs that would come from a largely automated powdered milk factory and cold store in Merrivale – to make it look like change is happening.

[dropcap style=”font-size: 60px; color: #DC943C;”] T [/dropcap]he people living in the south-west are not suckers, yet every election that comes along, be it state or federal, I believe we act that way.

We forget all that has gone before and fall for the glossy, big-faced posters that are strung up on fences, even if, in the case of Michael Neoh, they only joined their party (the Nationals) minutes after it became clear they were not wanted by their first party (the Liberals).

Or we are bombarded by advertising from deep-pocketed parties like the Liberals, who have long treated this seat like a personal fiefdom.

And, sure enough, the same party wins each time, and nothing actually changes.

So the roads get lumpier and bumpier, the old train with its old carriages still runs late, and more young people slip into a zone where they leave school, jobs are harder to find and things like “ice” become a way out of reality.

This Saturday, things can be different.

We can make a change – a real change – by voting for an independent, and that independent is Warrnambool legal aid lawyer Roy Reekie.

[dropcap style=”font-size: 60px; color: #DC943C;”] B [/dropcap]luestone is backing Roy for this election because we believe he has the experience, commitment and creative thinking needed to put the south-west back on the electoral map.

We want to live in an electorate that is no longer taken for granted, and attracts as much attention from Spring St as the other marginal seats around Victoria. As an independent, Roy can make a lot of noise and he can make it now – not stuck on the Opposition benches.

Roy has a range of creative and interesting ideas (you can read more on his by-election Facebook page and his open letter to voters) and, above all, he has shown a unbendable commitment to representing this corner of the world – even at his own expense.

Why else would anyone run five times against formidable odds?

The odds are still formidable – former Liberal Premier Denis Napthine pushed the seat out to an 11 per cent margin – but we are hoping that, this time, the south-west is ready to back a different runner in Roy Reekie and come home a real winner.

[box]A forum featuring all candidates will be held at the Lighthouse Theatre, W’bool, tomorrow (Monday Oct 26) at 7pm. The candidates are: Roy Reekie (independent), Thomas Campbell (The Greens), Roma Britnell (Liberal), Michael Neoh (Nationals), Michael McCluskey (independent), Swampy Marsh (independent), Pete Smith (independent), Jim Doukas (Country Party), Rodney Van De Hoef (independent), Jennifer Gamble (Animal Justice Party), Lillian Len (Australian Christians).[/box]

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By-election: Are we on a road to nowhere?

[box]ROY REEKIE is running as an independent in the by-election for South West Coast. Here he writes about improving the rail service:[/box]

[quote]

[dropcap style=”font-size: 60px; color: #A02F2F;”] I[/dropcap]n what’s been a confusing by-election so far, we have our first certainty. The South West will get its extra daily train service.

Last Wednesday, Opposition Leader Matthew Guy stood at Warrnambool station, flanked by a bank of dark suits, to announce that ‘a Coalition government’ would introduce a fourth daily service from Warrnambool; that is, IF the Coalition is elected back into government in 2018 or some election beyond. That’s not much of a guarantee. There are too many ifs and too much waiting.

I can go one better.

If I’m elected as your independent member for South West Coast on 31 October, I  guarantee that we will have an additional daily train service out of Warrnambool by this time next year.

I will also work with the community and the government to reform our train service to improve comfort, reliability, frequency and guaranteed, no excuses inclusion of people with mobility issues. I will make the train service safer and more convenient for  older people and young families. I will work on the government and the opposition to achieve a long term infrastructure investment plan for track upgrades and duplications so that our future rail services are faster, more comfortable and modern.  This is what’s required; not just a promise of an additional train here and there.

How will I do this? On Wednesday next week , I will announce my comprehensive rail policy at Warrnambool station just prior to the lunchtime train. Then, you need to vote on October 31 to make South West Coast marginal. If I’m elected, I’ll take it from there and deliver what we need.

I welcome the Coalition’s commitment to an extra train service. I don’t think it goes far enough or will happen soon enough, but I welcome it. And I say this to Mr Guy and Mr Walsh: if I’m elected, I expect your full support on the floor of the Parliament on this issue.

Roy Reekie

Ferguson Street Warrnambool.

(PO Box 882 Warrnambool 3280

Facebook: Roy Reekie, Independent candidate for South West Coast)

By Carol Altmann

[dropcap style=”font-size: 60px; color: #DC943C;”] M [/dropcap]oments of magic happen when they are least expected which is, of course, what makes them so special.

And such a moment happened Saturday night (19/9), under the stars, in the chilly breezeway next to The Artery, in Warrnambool, when a small group of people bought a coat for the community.

This was no ordinary coat.

Like all of the other items up for sale at the Fabrication II auction that night, the coat was made of unwanted offcuts of vintage Fletcher Jones fabrics that had been retrieved by members of the art collective, The F Project, after the Fletcher Jones factory closed.

Except these offcuts were made of the finest cashmere and wool, designed and made in the United Kingdom exclusively for Fletcher Jones’ suiting when the company was at its heights and known for its clothing of enduring quality.

[dropcap style=”font-size: 60px; color: #DC943C;”] Y [/dropcap]oung clothing designer Jack Hancock, who grew up in Warrnambool and is now finding his way in Melbourne, knew this fabric was special and the mere thought of it being destined for a dumpster made him almost weep.

Jack took these offcuts and created something exquisite: a single-button, double-breasted coat that fitted across the shoulders, but was deliberately “shapeless” across the hips so that it could be worn by either a man or a woman. The collar flipped up to reveal a splash of bright orange, a daring bolt of colour.

Turned, the back of the coat revealed an aerial view of the veins of Warrnambool – its waterways – the Merri and Hopkins rivers flowing toward the sea.

Each river was hand-sewn, stitch by gorgeous stitch, using silk thread.

This was a coat of fairytales, of fantasy and of Fletcher Jones.

[learn_more caption=”Read more about the coat here”] ….The internal structure of this wool/cashmere garment is supported by woven horsehair canvas, a traditional suiting canvas used to maintain form. Unlike contemporary suiting and coating construction, these breast plates were mounted against the wools by hand, using needle and thread. The lining is a combination of silk fabrics for the body and shirting for the sleeve. As part of my own process, I strive to maintain these traditional technqiues whilst experimenting with new themes. This coat could be worn casually on a day to day basis or kept as a special garment. It is intended to last for a long period of time and does not draw themes from fashion or trends. Investing in a coat like this could be likened to the purchase of a set of fine silver cutlery or a tea service of fine bone china. Both should be used and enjoyed, and with care, will one day be given to somebody else who will do the same. [/learn_more]

Jack, who is 24, stood nervously to the side, shifting from foot to foot, as he waited and waited and waited for his coat, the last item of the night, to go under the hammer. Would it sell?

[dropcap style=”font-size: 60px; color: #DC943C;”] A [/dropcap]t 24, Jack is one year older than Sir Fletcher was when he set out in a hawker’s van to sell his wares around Victoria, having been entranced by the world of the tailor.

“The first time I saw a tailor, tape around the neck, pin cushion clipped on his forearm, a chest full of tape and scissors and things, I was spellbound,” Sir Fletcher wrote in his memoir, Not by Myself.

To see Jack standing on the sidelines last night, doubting himself, wondering what would unfold, was to see a 2015 version of a young Fletcher Jones about to set forth on his destiny.

Auctioneer Gary Webb opened the bidding at $500. It then climbed to $800, $1000 and stalled, still below the reserve.

And then the magic happened.

[dropcap style=”font-size: 60px; color: #DC943C;”] W [/dropcap]arrnambool identity Roy Reekie, together with a bidder who would prefer to remain unnamed, and Bluestone Magazine, all decided there and then that this coat needed to be bought and it needed to be owned by the community.

The three of us all bid independently, but knowing we would all contribute to the final cost – $1400, $1500, $1800, $1900….$1995…sold!

And with the fall of the gavel Warrnambool now has a very special coat – the Fletcher Jones Memorial Coat – that personifies all that Sir Fletcher stood for: quality, care, community, endeavour and taking time.

Jack, it must be said, was shaking.

It is a coat that, both Jack and the buyers hope, will eventually be displayed at the former Fletcher Jones factory but, as Jack insists, in the meantime it “must be worn”.

And it will be worn.

But by whom? When, and where?

Wait and see.

[box]While Bluestone would love to say we made a major contribution to this coat, in reality we only made a small contribution. Roy Reekie and the other donor were the major contributors. The Fabrication II auction is a major fundraiser for The Artery and F Project.[/box]

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